Climate change will also have an impact on forest disturbances, such as pests and fire. Increasing temperature and changes in precipitation, combined with changes in productivity and composition, will affect overall forest health. Forests that become stressed as a result of such changes may become more vulnerable to disturbances.

How pest disturbances occur under various climate and forest conditions is still a developing science. There is always a high degree of uncertainty to consider when attempting to predict future pest outbreaks.

Using our knowledge of past events, it is possible to model future conditions that may be favourable for pest outbreaks under different climate scenarios. While these are not certain, they do provide some insight as to what ‘can’ happen in the future based on our current knowledge.

With this in mind, CFS researchers modelled a variety of disturbances on regional to national scales under the three climate change scenarios. The most notable potential impacts are mountain pine beetle (MPB), spruce budworm (SBW), and wildfire.